Serie A (Italy) · Sun, May 17 · 13:00 · Inter vs Hellas Verona
Likeliest: Inter win · 74%
We make it 49% for both teams to score. The market says 45%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Inter74%79%−5
OursMarket
Draw17%13%+4
OursMarket
Hellas Verona9%7%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 64% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 45% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 93% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 26% | 21% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 87% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 89% | 92% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Inter
WinDrawWinWinWin
- May 13 · at Lazio (A)2-0
- May 9 · at Lazio (A)3-0
- May 3 · v Parma (H)2-0
- Apr 26 · at Torino (A)2-2
- Apr 21 · v Como (H)3-2
Hellas Verona
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- May 10 · v Como (H)0-1
- May 3 · at Juventus (A)1-1
- Apr 25 · v Lecce (H)0-0
- Apr 19 · v AC Milan (H)0-1
- Apr 11 · at Torino (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Inter | Hellas Verona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.