Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Feb 14 · 19:45 · Inter vs Juventus
Likeliest: Inter win · 51%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 49%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Inter51%49%+2
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−3
OursMarket
Juventus25%24%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 49% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 53% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 51% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 67% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Inter
WinWinWinWinWin
- Feb 8 · at Sassuolo (A)5-0
- Feb 4 · v Torino (H)2-1
- Feb 1 · at Cremonese (A)2-0
- Jan 28 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)2-0
- Jan 23 · v Pisa (H)6-2
Juventus
WinDrawWinLossDraw
- Feb 8 · v Lazio (H)2-2
- Feb 5 · at Atalanta (A)0-3
- Feb 1 · at Parma (A)4-1
- Jan 28 · at Monaco (A)0-0
- Jan 25 · v Napoli (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Inter | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.