Serie A (Italy) · Wed, Jan 14 · 19:45 · Inter vs Lecce
Likeliest: Inter win · 67%
We make it 50% for both teams to score. The market says 38%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Inter67%81%−14
OursMarket
Draw21%13%+8
OursMarket
Lecce12%6%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 61% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 38% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 94% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 19% | +14 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 87% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 93% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Inter
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Jan 11 · v Napoli (H)2-2
- Jan 7 · at Parma (A)2-0
- Jan 4 · v Bologna (H)3-1
- Dec 28 · at Atalanta (A)1-0
- Dec 14 · at Genoa (A)2-1
Lecce
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Jan 11 · v Parma (H)1-2
- Jan 6 · v Roma (H)0-2
- Jan 3 · at Juventus (A)1-1
- Dec 27 · v Como (H)0-3
- Dec 12 · v Pisa (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Inter | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.