Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Jan 11 · 19:45 · Inter vs Napoli
Likeliest: Inter win · 52%
We make it 56% for both teams to score. The market says 45%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Inter52%54%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−1
OursMarket
Napoli22%19%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 43% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 45% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 81% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 46% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 74% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Inter
LossWinWinWinWin
- Jan 7 · at Parma (A)2-0
- Jan 4 · v Bologna (H)3-1
- Dec 28 · at Atalanta (A)1-0
- Dec 14 · at Genoa (A)2-1
- Dec 9 · v Liverpool (H)0-1
Napoli
LossLossWinWinDraw
- Jan 7 · v Hellas Verona (H)2-2
- Jan 4 · at Lazio (A)2-0
- Dec 28 · at Cremonese (A)2-0
- Dec 14 · at Udinese (A)0-1
- Dec 10 · at Benfica (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Inter | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.