Serie A (Italy) · Sun, May 3 · 18:45 · Inter vs Parma
Likeliest: Inter win · 66%
A 21% draw. The market says 14%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Inter66%78%−12
OursMarket
Draw21%14%+7
OursMarket
Parma13%8%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 63% | −28 |
| Both teams score | 44% | 47% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 92% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 22% | +12 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 86% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 91% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Inter
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Apr 26 · at Torino (A)2-2
- Apr 21 · v Como (H)3-2
- Apr 17 · v Cagliari (H)3-0
- Apr 12 · at Como (A)4-3
- Apr 5 · v Roma (H)5-2
Parma
LossDrawDrawWinWin
- Apr 25 · v Pisa (H)1-0
- Apr 18 · at Udinese (A)1-0
- Apr 12 · v Napoli (H)1-1
- Apr 4 · at Lazio (A)1-1
- Mar 21 · v Cremonese (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Inter | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.