Coppa Italia (Italy) · Wed, Feb 4 · 20:00 · Inter vs Torino
Likeliest: Inter win · 63%
We make it 54% for both teams to score. The market says 46%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Inter63%72%−9
OursMarket
Draw22%18%+3
OursMarket
Torino15%10%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 46% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 90% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 28% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 82% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 88% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Inter
WinLossWinWinWin
- Feb 1 · at Cremonese (A)2-0
- Jan 28 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)2-0
- Jan 23 · v Pisa (H)6-2
- Jan 20 · v Arsenal (H)1-3
- Jan 17 · at Udinese (A)1-0
Torino
LossWinLossLossWin
- Feb 1 · v Lecce (H)1-0
- Jan 24 · at Como (A)0-6
- Jan 18 · v Roma (H)0-2
- Jan 13 · at Roma (A)3-2
- Jan 10 · at Atalanta (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Inter | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.