Primera A (Colombia) · Tue, Oct 20 · 23:00 · Internacional de Bogotá vs Fortaleza CEIF
Likeliest: Internacional de Bogotá win · 50%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Internacional de Bogotá50%50%0
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Fortaleza CEIF22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Internacional de Bogotá
LossLossDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 10 · at Junior Barranquilla (A)2-2
- Oct 4 · v Once Caldas (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Deportivo Pereira (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Atlético Bucaramanga (A)0-2
- Sep 17 · v Atlético Nacional (H)2-3
Fortaleza CEIF
DrawLossDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 9 · v Millonarios (H)1-1
- Oct 4 · at Deportivo Pasto (A)0-0
- Sep 27 · v Deportes Tolima (H)2-2
- Sep 20 · v Junior Barranquilla (H)1-4
- Sep 11 · at Jaguares de Córdoba (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Internacional de Bogotá | Fortaleza CEIF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-7-2 | 1-6-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-2 | 0-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.