Primera A (Colombia) · Sun, Oct 4 · 21:05 · Internacional de Bogotá vs Once Caldas
Likeliest: Once Caldas win · 36%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 36% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Internacional de Bogotá31%35%−3
OursMarket
Draw32%29%+3
OursMarket
Once Caldas36%36%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 71% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 49% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Internacional de Bogotá
DrawWinLossLossDraw
- Sep 26 · at Deportivo Pereira (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Atlético Bucaramanga (A)0-2
- Sep 17 · v Atlético Nacional (H)2-3
- Sep 12 · v Llaneros FC (H)3-2
- Sep 6 · v Rionegro Águilas Doradas (H)2-2
Once Caldas
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Sep 26 · v Atlético Bucaramanga (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Deportivo Pasto (A)0-1
- Sep 16 · v Deportes Tolima (H)1-0
- Sep 13 · v Deportivo Cali (H)1-2
- Sep 5 · at Boyacá Chicó FC (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Internacional de Bogotá | Once Caldas |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-6-3 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.