Serie A (Brazil) · Sat, Oct 24 · 19:30 · Internacional vs Botafogo
Likeliest: Internacional win · 48%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Internacional48%48%0
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Botafogo25%26%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Internacional
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 16 · at Mirassol (A)0-2
- Oct 11 · at Grêmio (A)1-1
- Oct 7 · v Corinthians (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · at São Paulo (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Chapecoense (A)2-1
Botafogo
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v Chapecoense (H)1-0
- Oct 12 · at Coritiba (A)1-1
- Oct 7 · v Vasco da Gama (H)1-2
- Sep 19 · at Mirassol (A)0-2
- Sep 16 · v Grêmio (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Internacional | Botafogo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.