Copa do Brasil (Brazil) · Sun, Aug 2 · 22:30 · Internacional vs Corinthians
Likeliest: Internacional win · 41%
We make it 46% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Internacional41%42%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%29%−1
OursMarket
Corinthians31%29%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 41% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 71% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 60% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Internacional
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Jul 29 · v Flamengo (H)1-1
- Jul 25 · at Athletico (A)0-2
- Jul 23 · v Cruzeiro (H)1-2
- May 31 · at Red Bull Bragantino (A)1-3
- May 31 · at Bragantino (A)1-3
Corinthians
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- Jul 30 · v Athletico (H)0-0
- Jul 26 · at Bahia (A)1-1
- Jul 23 · v Remo (H)3-0
- May 30 · at Grêmio (A)3-1
- May 28 · v Platense (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Internacional | Corinthians |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.