Copa do Brasil (Brazil) · Thu, Aug 27 · 23:00 · Internacional vs Grêmio
Likeliest: Internacional win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Internacional46%48%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%29%−2
OursMarket
Grêmio26%23%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 42% | +24 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 49% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 77% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 52% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 67% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Internacional
WinLossDrawDrawDraw
- Aug 22 · v Atlético Mineiro (H)0-0
- Aug 17 · v Remo (H)1-1
- Aug 9 · at Palmeiras (A)0-0
- Aug 6 · at Corinthians (A)1-2
- Aug 2 · v Corinthians (H)2-0
Grêmio
DrawWinWinLossLoss
- Aug 23 · at Red Bull Bragantino (A)0-1
- Aug 16 · at Atlético Mineiro (A)0-3
- Aug 8 · v São Paulo (H)2-1
- Aug 5 · v Mirassol (H)1-0
- Aug 2 · at Mirassol (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Internacional | Grêmio |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.