Championship (Scotland) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Inverness Caledonian Thistle vs Arbroath
Likeliest: Inverness Caledonian Thistle win · 63%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 63% for the home win. The market says 61%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Inverness Caledonian Thistle63%61%+2
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Arbroath14%15%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 44% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 85% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 39% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Inverness Caledonian Thistle
WinDrawDrawWinLoss
- Oct 13 · at Queen's Park FC (A)1-2
- Oct 10 · v Stenhousemuir (H)2-0
- Sep 25 · v Greenock Morton (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Livingston (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Ayr United (A)3-1
Arbroath
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 10 · v Greenock Morton (H)1-2
- Oct 3 · at Partick Thistle (A)0-3
- Sep 25 · v Queen's Park FC (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Stenhousemuir (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Raith Rovers (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | Inverness Caledonian Thistle | Arbroath |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-1 | 1-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.