EFL Cup (England) · Tue, Sep 15 · 19:00 · Ipswich Town vs Arsenal
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 69%
A tight one: we make it 69% for the away win. The market says 67%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ipswich Town10%13%−3
OursMarket
Draw21%20%0
OursMarket
Arsenal69%67%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 51% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 31% | 33% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 90% | 87% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 13% | 16% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 2.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ipswich Town
WinWinLossLossWin
- Sep 12 · at Crystal Palace (A)3-2
- Sep 4 · v Liverpool (H)0-2
- Aug 30 · at Manchester United (A)2-5
- Aug 25 · v Leicester City (H)3-1
- Aug 22 · v Sunderland (H)2-1
Arsenal
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 12 · at Sunderland (A)2-0
- Sep 9 · at Napoli (A)1-0
- Sep 6 · v Chelsea (H)2-1
- Aug 31 · at Aston Villa (A)1-0
- Aug 21 · v Coventry City (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Ipswich Town | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 8-2-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.