Championship (England) · Sat, Mar 7 · 15:00 · Ipswich Town vs Leicester City
Likeliest: Ipswich Town win · 62%
We make it 58% for both teams to score. The market says 51%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ipswich Town62%63%−1
OursMarket
Draw20%22%−2
OursMarket
Leicester City19%16%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 55% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 51% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 84% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 37% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 80% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ipswich Town
LossLossWinWinWin
- Mar 3 · v Hull City (H)1-0
- Feb 28 · v Swansea City (H)3-0
- Feb 24 · at Watford (A)2-0
- Feb 21 · at Wrexham (A)3-5
- Feb 13 · at Wrexham (A)0-1
Leicester City
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Feb 28 · v Norwich City (H)0-2
- Feb 24 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-1
- Feb 21 · at Stoke City (A)2-2
- Feb 14 · at Southampton (A)1-2
- Feb 10 · v Southampton (H)3-4
| Last 10 games | Ipswich Town | Leicester City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 0-3-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-1-0 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.