EFL Cup (England) · Tue, Aug 25 · 18:45 · Ipswich Town vs Leicester City
Likeliest: Ipswich Town win · 64%
We make it 58% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ipswich Town64%59%+5
OursMarket
Draw19%23%−4
OursMarket
Leicester City17%19%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | −17 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 81% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 41% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 77% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 76% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ipswich Town
WinDrawDrawWinWin
- Aug 22 · v Sunderland (H)2-1
- May 2 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)3-0
- Apr 28 · at Southampton (A)2-2
- Apr 25 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)0-0
- Apr 22 · at Charlton Athletic (A)2-1
Leicester City
DrawWinWinDrawLoss
- Aug 22 · v Burton Albion (H)1-2
- Aug 15 · at Notts County (A)1-1
- Aug 8 · v Northampton Town (H)1-0
- May 2 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-0
- Apr 24 · v Millwall (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Ipswich Town | Leicester City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-4-0 | 1-6-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.