Premier League (England) · Fri, Sep 4 · 19:00 · Ipswich Town vs Liverpool
Likeliest: Ipswich Town win · 65%
We make it 50% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 35%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ipswich Town65%17%+48
OursMarket
Draw18%20%−2
OursMarket
Liverpool17%63%−45
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 65% | −14 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 37% | +45 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 83% | −48 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 22% | +57 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ipswich Town
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Aug 30 · at Manchester United (A)2-5
- Aug 25 · v Leicester City (H)3-1
- Aug 22 · v Sunderland (H)2-1
- May 2 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)3-0
- Apr 28 · at Southampton (A)2-2
Liverpool
WinDrawLossDrawDraw
- Aug 29 · v Nottingham Forest (H)2-2
- Aug 23 · at Newcastle United (A)2-2
- Jul 12 · v Cerro (H)1-2
- Jun 8 · v Cerro Largo (H)0-0
- Jun 1 · at Boston River (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Ipswich Town | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 1-6-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-4-0 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.