Championship (England) · Sun, Apr 19 · 11:00 · Ipswich Town vs Middlesbrough
Likeliest: Ipswich Town win · 47%
A 47% home win. The market says 41%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ipswich Town47%41%+6
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
Middlesbrough29%32%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 57% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 59% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 56% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ipswich Town
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Apr 14 · at Portsmouth (A)0-2
- Apr 11 · at Norwich City (A)2-0
- Apr 6 · v Birmingham City (H)2-1
- Mar 21 · v Millwall (H)1-1
- Mar 14 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)2-0
Middlesbrough
DrawDrawLossDrawLoss
- Apr 11 · v Portsmouth (H)0-1
- Apr 6 · at Swansea City (A)2-2
- Apr 3 · v Millwall (H)1-2
- Mar 21 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)0-0
- Mar 14 · v Bristol City (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Ipswich Town | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.