Premier League (England) · Fri, Oct 23 · 19:00 · Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest
Likeliest: Nottingham Forest win · 44%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 44% for the away win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ipswich Town28%31%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Nottingham Forest44%42%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 69% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 42% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ipswich Town
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Manchester City (A)2-3
- Oct 10 · v Fulham (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Everton (A)0-1
- Sep 15 · v Arsenal (H)2-4
- Sep 12 · at Crystal Palace (A)3-2
Nottingham Forest
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 18 · v Arsenal (H)0-1
- Oct 11 · at Crystal Palace (A)1-3
- Sep 19 · v Coventry City (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Aston Villa (A)2-1
- Sep 5 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Ipswich Town | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Ipswich Town form·Nottingham Forest form·Head-to-head record