Premier League (England) · Sat, Aug 22 · 14:00 · Ipswich Town vs Sunderland
Likeliest: Ipswich Town win · 48%
A 48% home win. The market says 35%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ipswich Town48%35%+14
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−4
OursMarket
Sunderland26%36%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 48% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 55% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 64% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 65% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 49% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ipswich Town
DrawWinDrawDrawWin
- May 2 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)3-0
- Apr 28 · at Southampton (A)2-2
- Apr 25 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)0-0
- Apr 22 · at Charlton Athletic (A)2-1
- Apr 19 · v Middlesbrough (H)2-2
Sunderland
LossDrawDrawWinWin
- May 24 · v Chelsea (H)2-1
- May 17 · at Everton (A)3-1
- May 9 · v Manchester United (H)0-0
- May 2 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)1-1
- Apr 24 · v Nottingham Forest (H)0-5
| Last 10 games | Ipswich Town | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-4-0 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.