Championship (England) · Sat, Nov 22 · 15:00 · Ipswich Town vs Wrexham
Likeliest: Wrexham win · 39%
A 28% draw. The market says 23%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ipswich Town33%62%−29
OursMarket
Draw28%23%+5
OursMarket
Wrexham39%16%+23
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 84% | −23 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 38% | +29 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 77% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 80% | −34 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ipswich Town
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Nov 8 · at Swansea City (A)4-1
- Nov 4 · v Watford (H)1-1
- Nov 1 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)4-1
- Oct 25 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)1-0
- Oct 21 · v Charlton Athletic (H)0-3
Wrexham
DrawLossWinDrawWin
- Nov 8 · v Charlton Athletic (H)1-0
- Nov 5 · at Portsmouth (A)0-0
- Oct 31 · v Coventry City (H)3-2
- Oct 28 · v Cardiff City (H)1-2
- Oct 25 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Ipswich Town | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.