Israeli Premier League (Israel) · Sat, Oct 10 · 16:00 · Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva
Likeliest: Hapoel Be'er Sheva win · 72%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 62% for both teams to score. The market says 54%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ironi Tiberias9%13%−4
OursMarket
Draw18%19%0
OursMarket
Hapoel Be'er Sheva72%68%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 54% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 28% | 32% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 91% | 87% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 81% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 11% | 16% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 2.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ironi Tiberias
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Sep 19 · at Maccabi Haifa (A)2-3
- Sep 15 · v Hapoel Jerusalem (H)2-2
- Sep 5 · at Maccabi Petach Tikva (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · at Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona (A)0-2
- Aug 22 · v Hapoel Petach Tikva (H)1-0
Hapoel Be'er Sheva
DrawLossWinDrawWin
- Sep 19 · v Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona (H)1-0
- Sep 16 · v GNK Dinamo Zagreb (H)0-0
- Sep 13 · at Hapoel Petach Tikva (A)2-0
- Sep 7 · v Maccabi Tel Aviv (H)1-4
- Sep 2 · v Hapoel Haifa (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Ironi Tiberias | Hapoel Be'er Sheva |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.