Israeli Premier League (Israel) · Tue, Sep 15 · 16:30 · Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Jerusalem
Likeliest: Hapoel Jerusalem win · 38%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ironi Tiberias32%34%−2
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Hapoel Jerusalem38%37%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 47% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ironi Tiberias
WinWinWinLossWin
- Sep 5 · at Maccabi Petach Tikva (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · at Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona (A)0-2
- Aug 22 · v Hapoel Petach Tikva (H)1-0
- May 18 · at Hapoel Jerusalem (A)2-0
- May 13 · v Maccabi Bnei Raina (H)1-0
Hapoel Jerusalem
WinLossLossLossWin
- Sep 5 · v Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona (H)4-2
- Aug 29 · at Hapoel Petach Tikva (A)0-1
- Aug 23 · v Maccabi Tel Aviv (H)2-5
- May 18 · v Ironi Tiberias (H)0-2
- May 13 · at Ashdod (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Ironi Tiberias | Hapoel Jerusalem |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.