Israeli Premier League (Israel) · Sat, Oct 24 · 16:00 · Ironi Tiberias vs Maccabi Netanya
Likeliest: Maccabi Netanya win · 63%
Likely score: 1–2
A 63% away win. The market says 59%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ironi Tiberias15%19%−4
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Maccabi Netanya63%59%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 37% | 41% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 85% | 81% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 19% | 24% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ironi Tiberias
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at Hapoel Tel Aviv (A)0-1
- Oct 10 · v Hapoel Be'er Sheva (H)0-2
- Sep 19 · at Maccabi Haifa (A)2-3
- Sep 15 · v Hapoel Jerusalem (H)2-2
- Sep 5 · at Maccabi Petach Tikva (A)2-1
Maccabi Netanya
DrawLossLossDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · at Hapoel Petach Tikva (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Maccabi Tel Aviv (H)1-2
- Sep 14 · at Hapoel Ramat Gan Givataim (A)0-2
- Sep 7 · v Hapoel Haifa (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Ironi Tiberias | Maccabi Netanya |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.