1. Lig (Turkey) · Sat, Oct 10 · 16:00 · İstanbulspor vs Esenler Erokspor
Likeliest: Esenler Erokspor win · 49%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 49% for the away win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
İstanbulspor24%27%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Esenler Erokspor49%47%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 33% | 37% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
İstanbulspor
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Sep 20 · at Manisa FK (A)1-0
- Sep 14 · at Kayserispor (A)0-4
- Sep 7 · v Iğdır FK (H)1-2
- Sep 3 · at Bursaspor (A)0-4
- Aug 29 · v Fatih Karagümrük (H)1-1
Esenler Erokspor
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- Sep 19 · v Fatih Karagümrük (H)0-2
- Sep 13 · at Bursaspor (A)2-2
- Sep 7 · v Kayserispor (H)0-3
- Sep 3 · at Bodrum FK (A)0-0
- Aug 30 · v Iğdır FK (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | İstanbulspor | Esenler Erokspor |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 0-6-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.