Botola Pro (Morocco) · Wed, Oct 14 · 20:00 · Ittihad Tanger vs MAS de Fès
Likeliest: MAS de Fès win · 48%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 48% for the away win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ittihad Tanger18%23%−5
OursMarket
Draw34%31%+3
OursMarket
MAS de Fès48%46%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 36% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 44% | 41% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 82% | 77% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 66% | 69% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 27% | 33% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ittihad Tanger
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · at Kawkab Athletic Club Marrakech (A)1-2
- Oct 2 · v Moghreb Atlético Tetuán (H)1-1
- Sep 24 · at Union Sportive Amal Tiznit (A)3-1
- Jul 5 · v CODM Meknès (H)2-1
- Jul 2 · at UTS Rabat (A)0-1
MAS de Fès
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- Oct 8 · v Raja Club Athletic (H)0-0
- Oct 3 · at Hassania d'Agadir (A)2-1
- Sep 27 · v Renaissance Zemamra (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Rahimo FC (A)0-0
- Sep 6 · v Rahimo FC (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | Ittihad Tanger | MAS de Fès |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-4-0 | 3-3-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.