J2 League (Japan) · Sun, Oct 11 · 06:00 · Iwaki FC vs Blaublitz Akita
Likeliest: Iwaki FC win · 38%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 55% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Iwaki FC38%40%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Blaublitz Akita32%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 45% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 50% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Iwaki FC
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 7 · at Sanfrecce Hiroshima (A)0-4
- Oct 4 · at Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (A)1-2
- Sep 26 · v Vegalta Sendai (H)0-2
- Sep 19 · at Sagan Tosu (A)3-1
- Sep 12 · v Yokohama FC (H)2-0
Blaublitz Akita
DrawWinDrawDrawWin
- Oct 4 · v Sagan Tosu (H)1-0
- Sep 26 · v Albirex Niigata (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Shonan Bellmare (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Tokushima Vortis (H)4-1
- Sep 6 · v RB Omiya Ardija (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Iwaki FC | Blaublitz Akita |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-0-7 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.