J2 League (Japan) · Sun, Oct 18 · 04:00 · Iwaki FC vs Ventforet Kofu
Likeliest: Iwaki FC win · 54%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 56% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Iwaki FC54%53%+1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Ventforet Kofu19%21%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 49% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 50% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 72% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Iwaki FC
WinLossLossLossWin
- Oct 11 · v Blaublitz Akita (H)1-0
- Oct 7 · at Sanfrecce Hiroshima (A)0-4
- Oct 4 · at Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (A)1-2
- Sep 26 · v Vegalta Sendai (H)0-2
- Sep 19 · at Sagan Tosu (A)3-1
Ventforet Kofu
LossLossLossLossWin
- Oct 10 · v Tochigi City FC (H)2-1
- Oct 3 · v Kataller Toyama (H)1-2
- Sep 26 · at RB Omiya Ardija (A)1-5
- Sep 23 · at Kashima Antlers (A)1-3
- Sep 19 · v Tokushima Vortis (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Iwaki FC | Ventforet Kofu |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-0-7 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-2 | 1-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.