Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 15 · 19:00 · Jagiellonia Białystok vs FC Ararat-Armenia
Likeliest: Jagiellonia Białystok win · 70%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 70% for the home win. The market says 67%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Jagiellonia Białystok70%67%+3
OursMarket
Draw19%19%−1
OursMarket
FC Ararat-Armenia12%13%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 52% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 87% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 30% | 33% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 86% | 83% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Jagiellonia Białystok
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 10 · v Górnik Zabrze (H)1-3
- Sep 20 · v Legia Warszawa (H)1-3
- Sep 16 · at Olympiacos FC (A)1-2
- Sep 11 · at Wisła Kraków (A)0-2
- Sep 6 · v Śląsk Wrocław (H)2-1
FC Ararat-Armenia
WinLossDrawWinLoss
- Sep 16 · v AC Sparta Praha (H)1-4
- Aug 27 · v Universitatea Craiova (H)1-0
- Aug 20 · at Universitatea Craiova (A)1-1
- Aug 11 · at NK Celje (A)0-2
- Aug 4 · v NK Celje (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Jagiellonia Białystok | FC Ararat-Armenia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 4-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 44% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 33% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.