Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Sat, Oct 10 · 18:15 · Jagiellonia Białystok vs Górnik Zabrze
Likeliest: Górnik Zabrze win · 36%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 36% for the away win. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Jagiellonia Białystok36%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Górnik Zabrze36%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 59% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Jagiellonia Białystok
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Sep 20 · v Legia Warszawa (H)1-3
- Sep 16 · at Olympiacos FC (A)1-2
- Sep 11 · at Wisła Kraków (A)0-2
- Sep 6 · v Śląsk Wrocław (H)2-1
- Sep 3 · at Lech Poznań (A)1-2
Górnik Zabrze
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Sep 19 · at Motor Lublin (A)0-0
- Sep 15 · at MKS Korona Kielce (A)2-0
- Sep 12 · v Lech Poznań (H)2-1
- Sep 6 · at Cracovia (A)1-0
- Sep 3 · at Raków Częstochowa (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Jagiellonia Białystok | Górnik Zabrze |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.