Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Sun, Sep 20 · 15:30 · Jagiellonia Białystok vs Legia Warszawa
Likeliest: Legia Warszawa win · 42%
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Jagiellonia Białystok30%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Legia Warszawa42%41%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 44% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Jagiellonia Białystok
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Sep 16 · at Olympiacos FC (A)1-2
- Sep 11 · at Wisła Kraków (A)0-2
- Sep 6 · v Śląsk Wrocław (H)2-1
- Sep 3 · at Lech Poznań (A)1-2
- Aug 30 · at Raków Częstochowa (A)5-2
Legia Warszawa
WinDrawDrawWinDraw
- Sep 13 · v Widzew Łódź (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Motor Lublin (A)3-2
- Aug 28 · v Śląsk Wrocław (H)1-1
- Aug 22 · at Piast Gliwice (A)1-1
- Aug 14 · v Radomiak Radom (H)5-0
| Last 10 games | Jagiellonia Białystok | Legia Warszawa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 6-4-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.