Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Sun, Oct 25 · 13:45 · Jagiellonia Białystok vs Wisła Płock
Likeliest: Jagiellonia Białystok win · 50%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Jagiellonia Białystok50%50%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Wisła Płock24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 50% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Jagiellonia Białystok
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 18 · at Zagłębie Lubin (A)0-1
- Oct 15 · v FC Ararat-Armenia (H)3-1
- Oct 10 · v Górnik Zabrze (H)1-3
- Sep 20 · v Legia Warszawa (H)1-3
- Sep 16 · at Olympiacos FC (A)1-2
Wisła Płock
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Oct 19 · v Radomiak Radom (H)1-0
- Oct 9 · at Wieczysta Kraków (A)0-3
- Sep 20 · at Zagłębie Lubin (A)2-0
- Sep 13 · v Cracovia (H)3-1
- Sep 7 · at Pogoń Szczecin (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Jagiellonia Białystok | Wisła Płock |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.