Primera A (Colombia) · Sun, Oct 11 · 21:05 · Jaguares de Córdoba vs Deportes Tolima
Likeliest: Deportes Tolima win · 52%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 52% for the away win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Jaguares de Córdoba19%22%−4
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Deportes Tolima52%50%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 44% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 48% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 81% | 78% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 26% | 31% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Jaguares de Córdoba
DrawDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 3 · at Rionegro Águilas Doradas (A)0-2
- Sep 27 · v Alianza Valledupar FC (H)1-2
- Sep 22 · at Independiente Medellín (A)1-2
- Sep 11 · v Fortaleza CEIF (H)2-2
- Sep 6 · at Junior Barranquilla (A)3-3
Deportes Tolima
LossDrawDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 8 · at Atlético Nacional (A)0-0
- Oct 3 · v Boyacá Chicó FC (H)0-0
- Sep 27 · at Fortaleza CEIF (A)2-2
- Sep 20 · v América de Cali (H)1-1
- Sep 16 · at Once Caldas (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Jaguares de Córdoba | Deportes Tolima |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-2 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.