Friendly International (World) · Mon, Oct 5 · 10:30 · Japan vs New Zealand
Likeliest: Japan win · 79%
Likely score: 1–0
We make it 49% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Japan79%76%+3
OursMarket
Draw13%15%−1
OursMarket
New Zealand7%9%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 64% | −13 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 93% | 91% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 21% | 24% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 87% | 85% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 91% | 90% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 0.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Japan
DrawLossWinWinDraw
- Oct 1 · v Ecuador (H)0-0
- Sep 28 · v Venezuela (H)2-1
- Sep 24 · v Uruguay (H)3-1
- Jun 29 · at Brazil (A)1-2
- Jun 25 · v Sweden (H)1-1
New Zealand
LossLossDrawWinDraw
- Oct 1 · at Panama (A)1-1
- Sep 27 · at China (A)3-0
- Sep 24 · at Palestine (A)2-2
- Jun 27 · v Belgium (H)1-5
- Jun 22 · v Egypt (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Japan | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-0 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.