Ykkösliiga (Finland) · Fri, Sep 18 · 15:30 · JäPS vs EIF
Likeliest: EIF win · 38%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
JäPS34%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%26%+2
OursMarket
EIF38%38%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 57% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 61% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 49% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
JäPS
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Sep 11 · at KTP (A)0-3
- Sep 6 · at SJK Akatemia (A)3-2
- Aug 28 · v KäPa (H)0-0
- Aug 21 · at PK-35 (A)0-3
- Aug 14 · v FC Haka (H)1-2
EIF
WinLossLossDrawDraw
- Sep 12 · v FC Haka (H)2-2
- Sep 4 · at PK-35 (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Jippo Joensuu (H)0-2
- Aug 22 · v KTP (H)0-1
- Aug 16 · at MP (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | JäPS | EIF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-2 | 2-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.