Ykkösliiga (Finland) · Fri, Oct 9 · 16:00 · JäPS vs Jippo Joensuu
Likeliest: Jippo Joensuu win · 56%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 56% for the away win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
JäPS18%22%−4
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
Jippo Joensuu56%53%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 45% | 47% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 82% | 78% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 24% | 29% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
JäPS
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Sep 26 · at HJK Klubi 04 (A)1-2
- Sep 18 · v EIF (H)1-0
- Sep 11 · at KTP (A)0-3
- Sep 6 · at SJK Akatemia (A)3-2
- Aug 28 · v KäPa (H)0-0
Jippo Joensuu
WinLossWinLossDraw
- Sep 26 · v PK-35 (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at MP (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · v HJK Klubi 04 (H)3-1
- Sep 4 · v KTP (H)0-2
- Aug 29 · at EIF (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | JäPS | Jippo Joensuu |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-2 | 3-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.