J-League (Japan) · Sun, Oct 11 · 05:00 · JEF United Chiba vs V-Varen Nagasaki
Likeliest: V-Varen Nagasaki win · 39%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
JEF United Chiba32%35%−3
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
V-Varen Nagasaki39%38%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 55% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 48% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
JEF United Chiba
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Oct 7 · at Fagiano Okayama (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Shimizu S-Pulse (A)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Tokyo Verdy (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Gamba Osaka (H)2-0
- Sep 2 · v Fagiano Okayama (H)1-2
V-Varen Nagasaki
DrawLossWinDrawDraw
- Oct 7 · at Shimizu S-Pulse (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Cerezo Osaka (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Nagoya Grampus (H)2-0
- Sep 6 · at Vissel Kobe (A)1-3
- Sep 2 · v Gamba Osaka (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | JEF United Chiba | V-Varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-8 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.