J-League (Japan) · Sat, Oct 17 · 05:00 · JEF United Chiba vs Yokohama F. Marinos
Likeliest: Yokohama F. Marinos win · 51%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 51% for the away win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
JEF United Chiba22%25%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Yokohama F. Marinos51%49%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 54% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 53% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 30% | 34% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
JEF United Chiba
WinDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 11 · v V-Varen Nagasaki (H)1-1
- Oct 7 · at Fagiano Okayama (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Shimizu S-Pulse (A)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Tokyo Verdy (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Gamba Osaka (H)2-0
Yokohama F. Marinos
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- Oct 10 · at Cerezo Osaka (A)0-0
- Oct 7 · v Kyoto Sangyo University (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · v Mito Hollyhock (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · at Machida Zelvia (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · at Kashiwa Reysol (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | JEF United Chiba | Yokohama F. Marinos |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-3 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.