K League 1 (South Korea) · Sat, Sep 12 · 07:30 · Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors vs FC Seoul
Likeliest: FC Seoul win · 37%
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors32%34%−2
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
FC Seoul37%37%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 49% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 56% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 63% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors
WinDrawDrawWinDraw
- Sep 9 · at Gangwon FC (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Pohang Steelers (H)2-0
- Aug 30 · at Incheon United (A)1-1
- Aug 25 · at Gimcheon Sangmu FC (A)0-0
- Aug 22 · v Ulsan HD (H)1-0
FC Seoul
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 8 · at Ulsan HD (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Incheon United (H)1-0
- Aug 30 · at Gwangju FC (A)5-2
- Aug 25 · v Bucheon FC 1995 (H)1-0
- Aug 22 · at FC Anyang (A)7-0
| Last 10 games | Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors | FC Seoul |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-2 | 3-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.