K League 1 (South Korea) · Sun, Sep 20 · 07:30 · Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors vs Gwangju FC
Likeliest: Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors win · 69%
A tight one: we make it 69% for the home win. The market says 67%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors69%67%+2
OursMarket
Draw18%20%−2
OursMarket
Gwangju FC13%13%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 57% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 87% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 31% | 33% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 84% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- Sep 16 · v Kashiwa Reysol (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · v FC Seoul (H)1-2
- Sep 9 · at Gangwon FC (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Pohang Steelers (H)2-0
- Aug 30 · at Incheon United (A)1-1
Gwangju FC
DrawLossDrawLossDraw
- Sep 13 · v FC Anyang (H)1-1
- Sep 9 · v Jeju SK (H)0-1
- Sep 6 · at Gimcheon Sangmu FC (A)2-2
- Aug 30 · v FC Seoul (H)2-5
- Aug 26 · at Gangwon FC (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors | Gwangju FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 0-4-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-3 | 0-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.