K League 1 (South Korea) · Sun, Oct 18 · 05:00 · Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors vs Jeju SK
Likeliest: Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors win · 45%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors45%48%−4
OursMarket
Draw30%27%+3
OursMarket
Jeju SK25%25%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 52% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 73% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 66% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Oct 14 · at Vissel Kobe (A)0-2
- Oct 9 · at Daejeon Hana Citizen (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Gwangju FC (H)2-2
- Sep 16 · v Kashiwa Reysol (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · v FC Seoul (H)1-2
Jeju SK
DrawWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 10 · at FC Seoul (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · at Gangwon FC (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · at Bucheon FC 1995 (A)2-2
- Sep 9 · at Gwangju FC (A)1-0
- Sep 5 · v Ulsan HD (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors | Jeju SK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-3 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.