AFC Champions League Elite (Asia) · Tue, Nov 3 · 10:00 · Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors vs Johor Darul Ta'zim
Likeliest: Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors win · 39%
Likely scores: 2–1 14% · 1–1 11% · 1–0 11%
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors39%40%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Johor Darul Ta'zim33%34%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors
LossWinDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 31 · v Daejeon Hana Citizen (H)0-0
- Oct 27 · at Beijing Guoan (A)2-2
- Oct 24 · at FC Anyang (A)1-1
- Oct 18 · v Jeju SK (H)3-2
- Oct 14 · at Vissel Kobe (A)0-2
Johor Darul Ta'zim
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 27 · v Port FC (H)3-0
- Oct 18 · at Terengganu (A)3-0
- Oct 13 · at Pohang Steelers (A)2-0
- Sep 15 · v Buriram United (H)1-1
- Sep 11 · v Negeri Sembilan (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors | Johor Darul Ta'zim |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 3.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 80% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.