AFC Champions League Elite (Asia) · Wed, Sep 16 · 10:00 · Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors vs Kashiwa Reysol
Likeliest: Kashiwa Reysol win · 39%
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors33%30%+3
OursMarket
Draw29%26%+2
OursMarket
Kashiwa Reysol39%44%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 51% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 56% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 70% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 41% | +5 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors
DrawDrawWinDrawLoss
- Sep 12 · v FC Seoul (H)1-2
- Sep 9 · at Gangwon FC (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Pohang Steelers (H)2-0
- Aug 30 · at Incheon United (A)1-1
- Aug 25 · at Gimcheon Sangmu FC (A)0-0
Kashiwa Reysol
WinWinLossLossWin
- Sep 11 · at Kyoto Sanga FC (A)3-2
- Sep 6 · v Yokohama F. Marinos (H)0-2
- Sep 2 · at Cerezo Osaka (A)0-2
- Aug 29 · at Shimizu S-Pulse (A)1-0
- Aug 21 · v V-Varen Nagasaki (H)4-2
| Last 10 games | Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors | Kashiwa Reysol |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-3 | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.