K League 2 (South Korea) · Sat, Oct 24 · 05:00 · Jeonnam Dragons vs Daegu FC
Likeliest: Daegu FC win · 61%
Likely score: 1–2
A 61% away win. The market says 57%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Jeonnam Dragons17%21%−4
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Daegu FC61%57%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 39% | 43% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 83% | 79% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 22% | 27% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Jeonnam Dragons
DrawDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 18 · at Busan I Park (A)1-2
- Oct 10 · v Yongin City FC (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · v Suwon FC (H)0-3
- Sep 13 · v Gimpo FC (H)2-2
- Sep 5 · at Gimhae City FC (A)2-2
Daegu FC
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Oct 17 · v Cheongju FC (H)3-1
- Sep 19 · at Seoul E-Land FC (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v Yongin City FC (H)3-1
- Sep 4 · at Paju Citizen FC (A)0-0
- Aug 28 · at Ansan Greeners FC (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Jeonnam Dragons | Daegu FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.