K League 2 (South Korea) · Sat, Sep 19 · 07:30 · Jeonnam Dragons vs Suwon FC
Likeliest: Suwon FC win · 52%
A tight one: we make it 52% for the away win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Jeonnam Dragons22%26%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%24%+1
OursMarket
Suwon FC52%50%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 58% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 78% | 74% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 30% | 34% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Jeonnam Dragons
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- Sep 13 · v Gimpo FC (H)2-2
- Sep 5 · at Gimhae City FC (A)2-2
- Aug 28 · v Cheonan City FC (H)1-0
- Aug 23 · v Hwaseong FC (H)1-0
- Aug 15 · at Cheongju FC (A)1-2
Suwon FC
DrawWinWinDrawDraw
- Sep 13 · v Cheonan City FC (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Yongin City FC (A)1-1
- Aug 30 · v Busan I Park (H)2-1
- Aug 22 · v Gimhae City FC (H)2-0
- Aug 15 · at Suwon Samsung Bluewings (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Jeonnam Dragons | Suwon FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 6-4-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-2 | 3-3-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.