K League 2 (South Korea) · Sat, Oct 10 · 05:00 · Jeonnam Dragons vs Yongin City FC
Likeliest: Yongin City FC win · 40%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Jeonnam Dragons31%34%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Yongin City FC40%39%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 46% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Jeonnam Dragons
WinWinDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 19 · v Suwon FC (H)0-3
- Sep 13 · v Gimpo FC (H)2-2
- Sep 5 · at Gimhae City FC (A)2-2
- Aug 28 · v Cheonan City FC (H)1-0
- Aug 23 · v Hwaseong FC (H)1-0
Yongin City FC
LossWinDrawLossDraw
- Sep 20 · v Gyeongnam FC (H)0-0
- Sep 12 · at Daegu FC (A)1-3
- Sep 5 · v Suwon FC (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · at Gimhae City FC (A)3-0
- Aug 23 · at Chungnam Asan FC (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Jeonnam Dragons | Yongin City FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-3 | 1-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.