Ykkösliiga (Finland) · Sat, Sep 12 · 13:00 · Jippo Joensuu vs HJK Klubi 04
Likeliest: Jippo Joensuu win · 62%
A tight one: we make it 62% for the home win. The market says 60%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Jippo Joensuu62%60%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%22%−1
OursMarket
HJK Klubi 0417%18%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 82% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 40% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Jippo Joensuu
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Sep 4 · v KTP (H)0-2
- Aug 29 · at EIF (A)2-0
- Aug 20 · at KäPa (A)3-1
- Aug 15 · v SJK Akatemia (H)0-1
- Aug 7 · at FC Haka (A)0-3
HJK Klubi 04
LossDrawWinWinDraw
- Sep 7 · v KäPa (H)2-2
- Aug 30 · at SJK Akatemia (A)6-2
- Aug 22 · v MP (H)4-3
- Aug 15 · at PK-35 (A)1-1
- Aug 9 · v KTP (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Jippo Joensuu | HJK Klubi 04 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-2 | 2-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.