Ykkösliiga (Finland) · Sat, Sep 26 · 13:00 · Jippo Joensuu vs PK-35
Likeliest: Jippo Joensuu win · 37%
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Jippo Joensuu37%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+3
OursMarket
PK-3533%33%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 52% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Jippo Joensuu
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Sep 19 · at MP (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · v HJK Klubi 04 (H)3-1
- Sep 4 · v KTP (H)0-2
- Aug 29 · at EIF (A)2-0
- Aug 20 · at KäPa (A)3-1
PK-35
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Sep 19 · v KTP (H)0-3
- Sep 11 · at KäPa (A)4-1
- Sep 4 · v EIF (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · at MP (A)3-0
- Aug 21 · v JäPS (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Jippo Joensuu | PK-35 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-2 | 7-0-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.