AFC Champions League Elite (Asia) · Tue, Sep 15 · 12:15 · Johor Darul Ta'zim vs Buriram United
Likeliest: Johor Darul Ta'zim win · 52%
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Johor Darul Ta'zim52%52%−1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%−1
OursMarket
Buriram United25%23%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 55% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 77% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 48% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 69% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Johor Darul Ta'zim
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 11 · v Negeri Sembilan (H)3-0
- Sep 4 · v Brunei DPMM FC (H)3-0
- Aug 29 · v Immigration FC (H)7-0
- Aug 26 · v Kelantan Red Warrior FC (H)9-0
- Aug 21 · v Kuching City (H)3-0
Buriram United
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Sep 11 · v Chiangrai United (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at Sukhothai (A)3-1
- Apr 18 · v Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (H)2-3
- Mar 3 · at Melbourne City (A)1-1
- Feb 17 · v Shanghai Shenhua (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Johor Darul Ta'zim | Buriram United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 3-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.