Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Mon, Oct 19 · 18:00 · Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap
Likeliest: De Graafschap win · 43%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 43% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Jong Ajax34%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw23%23%+1
OursMarket
De Graafschap43%41%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 72% | 72% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 47% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Jong Ajax
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 9 · v VVV-Venlo (H)0-3
- Sep 18 · v Roda JC Kerkrade (H)0-0
- Sep 14 · at Jong FC Utrecht Youth (A)1-6
- Sep 11 · v RKC Waalwijk (H)0-2
- Sep 4 · at Almere City FC (A)1-0
De Graafschap
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 9 · v Jong FC Utrecht Youth (H)2-1
- Oct 3 · at FC Eindhoven (A)2-2
- Sep 27 · v FC Den Bosch (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · v NAC Breda (H)1-2
- Sep 11 · at FC Emmen (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Jong Ajax | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.