Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Sep 11 · 18:00 · Jong Ajax vs RKC Waalwijk
Likeliest: RKC Waalwijk win · 48%
A tight one: we make it 48% for the away win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Jong Ajax26%28%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%24%+1
OursMarket
RKC Waalwijk48%48%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 68% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 52% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 35% | 37% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Jong Ajax
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Sep 4 · at Almere City FC (A)1-0
- Aug 31 · at Jong PSV Eindhoven (A)1-1
- Aug 28 · v Helmond Sport (H)3-2
- Aug 22 · at NAC Breda (A)2-3
- Aug 17 · v FC Emmen (H)4-6
RKC Waalwijk
DrawDrawDrawDrawWin
- Sep 4 · v NAC Breda (H)4-2
- Aug 28 · v Jong PSV Eindhoven (H)2-2
- Aug 21 · at Helmond Sport (A)1-1
- Aug 14 · v FC Dordrecht (H)2-2
- Aug 7 · at Vitesse (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Jong Ajax | RKC Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.